From February through October, StockSnips’ AI-driven Sentiment Signal tracked the emotional pulse of U.S. equities, and once again, it turned before price did.
February 2025 – Early complacency
Markets hovered near record highs while sentiment quietly drifted lower. Despite stable price action, our AI-derived Sentiment Index flagged rising pessimism in earnings commentary and macro chatter, an early sign of exhaustion under the surface.
March – April: Trade shocks and sentiment collapse
Tariff headlines and renewed rate fears triggered a sharp emotional turn. Sentiment fell steadily through March, bottoming on April 8, the same day U.S. equities reached their spring low near 5,000 on the S&P 500. Within two weeks, sentiment momentum flipped positive, a behavioral inflection that preceded the rebound in price by roughly ten trading days.
May – July: Confidence rebuilds
Investor tone stabilized as inflation cooled and the Federal Reserve’s communication softened. By June, sentiment had climbed back into neutral territory, supported by resilient corporate results and easing trade rhetoric.
August – September: Bullish breakout
Ahead of the September 17 Fed rate cut, our index entered the bullish zone above 250, signaling renewed risk appetite. Technology and cyclical sectors led the rally, validating sentiment’s predictive signal once again. When the Fed delivered its cut, market prices caught up to what behavioral data had already been showing.
October: Sentiment peaks before consolidation
By October 6, sentiment reached its highest level of 2025, coinciding with the year’s price high. In the following week, sentiment moderated even as equities remained elevated, an early indication that markets were shifting from momentum to consolidation.
Chart:
Market Sentiment vs Price (Feb–Oct 2025)
Orange Line – Close Price
Green Line – Daily Sentiment
Blue Line – 50D Sentiment
Advisor Takeaways:
• April’s sentiment trough preceded the market rebound by nearly two weeks.
• Behavioral signals strengthened ahead of the September policy shift.
• October’s plateau in sentiment hinted at a pause before volatility returned.
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For informational and educational purposes only. Past performance and sentiment trends are not indicative of future results. StockSnips Inc. is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Data © 2025 StockSnips Inc. All rights reserved.